Afternoon Market Overview

This week’s EIA report was overall bullish based on total combined crude oil and refined product inventories decreasing for the week. Total combined stocks are now 178.9 million bbls below the record high hit at the end of the first week of February of 2017.

The EIA reported a draw in crude oil and gasoline and in distillate fuel stocks. Total US crude oil production increased after increasing during the previous week. Total US production is well above the average annual high hit in 1970 and above the average monthly record high hit in October of 1970 of 10.013 million bpd. There was a decrease in production from Alaska with the lower forty-eight increasing. Total US crude production increased by 25,000 bpd in the lower forty-eight while decreasing by 10,000 bpd in Alaska. Total US crude oil production is now 903,000 bpd above the average annual record high in 1970 and 527,000 above the record monthly high in October of 1970. Total US crude oil production is about 14.69 percent above where it was for the same week a year ago.

This week’s production came in at 10.540 million bpd. Total commercial stocks of crude oil and refined products were lower by 10.5 million bbls after increasing during the previous week. The year over year deficit came in at 150.1 million barrels while the deficit versus the five- year average for the same week came in at 6.9 million barrels. Total combined stocks of crude and refined products have been decreasing for the last few months and are now 178.9 million bbls off their record high level. Distillate stocks decreased by 3.1 million bbls versus the market expectations for a smaller draw even as total US refinery runs decreased to 92.4 percent of capacity, with exports decreasing modestly on the week.

The year over year comparison shows current stock levels at about 23 million barrels below last year. The five-year average deficit came in around 15.8 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.9 million bbls and are still off the record high level hit early in 2017.

The deficit versus last year came in around 1.7 million barrels while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week came in at 8.5 million barrels.