Return of the Tanker War?
- Ukraine initiates strikes against Russian shadow fleet
- Putin suggests that vessels of Ukrainian allies may now be targeted
- Military escalation seems likely to delay a peace deal
- Bitter cold rolls across much of the country
Sincerely,
David Thompson, CMT
Executive Vice President
Powerhouse
(202) 333-5380
The Matrix
Ukrainian armed forces have significantly expanded the battlefield as they target vessels in the Russian ‘shadow’ fleet of oil tankers. Naval drones have recently struck three tankers in the Black Sea, and a fourth tanker was rocked by explosions off the coast of Senegal.
Over 100 vessels are now under Western sanctions, though, by definition, the precise size of the shadow fleet is difficult to ascertain. In targeting this link in the energy chain, Ukraine may have found targets that prove more difficult to repair or replace.
The change in tactics elicited a sharp response from President Putin. Speaking today he said, “We will increase strikes on facilities and Ukrainian vessels” and “We will take measures against tankers of the countries which help Ukraine.”
The Tanker War is the name given to a series of attacks against shipping in the Persian Gulf during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980’s. Seven vessels were sunk, twenty-four severely damaged over the course of more than 400 attacks by both sides.
Whether or not the current situation escalates to anything close to that scale remains to be seen but increasing the scope of the conflict would seem to delay the prospects for a peace deal in the near term.
Supply/Demand Balances
Supply/demand data in the United States for the week ended November 21, 2025, were released by the Energy Information Administration.
Total commercial stocks of petroleum increased (⬆) 1.6 million barrels to 1.2707 billion barrels during the week ended November 21st, 2025.
Commercial crude oil supplies in the United States were higher (⬆) by 2.8 million barrels from the previous report week to 426.9 million barrels.
Crude oil inventory changes by PAD District:
PADD 1: Down (⬇) 1.1 million barrels to 7.3 million barrels
PADD 2: Down (⬇) 1.2 million barrels to 100.9 million barrels
PADD 3: Up (⬆) 5.7 million barrels to 247.0 million barrels
PADD 4: Unchanged (=) at 24.6 million barrels
PADD 5: Down (⬇) 0.6 million barrels to 47.1 million barrels
Cushing, Oklahoma, inventories were unchanged (=) at 21.8 million barrels.
Domestic crude oil production decreased (⬇) 20,000 barrels per day from the previous report to 13.814 million barrels per day.
Crude oil imports averaged6.436 million barrels per day, a daily increase (⬆) of 486,000 barrels. Exports decreased (⬇) 560,000 barrels daily to 3.598 million barrels per day.
Refineries used 92.3 percent of capacity; an increase (⬆) of 2.3 percent from the previous report week.
Crude oil inputs to refineries increased (⬆) 211,000 barrels daily; there were 16.443 million barrels per day of crude oil run to facilities. Gross inputs, which include blending stocks, increased (⬆) 420,000 barrels daily to 16.763 million barrels daily.
Total petroleum product inventories decreased (⬇) by 1.2 million barrels from the previous report week, down to 843.8 million barrels.
Total product demand increased (⬆) 83,000 barrels daily to 20.240 million barrels per day.
Gasoline stocks decreased (⬆) 2.5 million barrels from the previous report week; total stocks are 209.9 million barrels.
Demand for gasoline increased (⬆) 199,000 barrels per day to 8.726 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel oil stocks increased (⬆) 1.1 million barrels from the previous report week; distillate stocks are at 112.2 million barrels. EIA reported national distillate demand at 3.362 million barrels per day during the report week, a decrease (⬇) of 520,000 barrels daily.
Propane stocks fell (⬇) by 1.1 million barrels to 104.2 million barrels. The report estimated current demand at 1,522,000 barrels per day, an increase (⬆) of 400,000 barrels daily from the previous report week.
Natural Gas
Operational flow orders (OFO) have boosted pipeline prices in the deep South above comparable price increases at Henry Hub. Analyst Wood Mackenzie notes OFOs heighten concerns about supply/demand balance as the first truly cold winter weather grips much of the country.
Forecaster NatGasWeather expects bitterly cold air will impact much of the northern half of the United States the next couple of days. Another cold blast is expected to follow across this same region Thursday–Monday, with weather models steadily trending colder.
According to the EIA:
- Net withdrawals from storage totaled 14 Bcf for the week ended November 14, compared with the five-year (2020–24) average net injections of 12 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 3 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,946 Bcf, which is 146 Bcf (4%) more than the five-year average and 23 Bcf (1%) lower than last year at this time. This net withdrawal was the first for the Lower 48 states in the 2025–26 winter heating season.
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