A new report from Navigant Research provides forecasts, market sizing and market share analysis for the overall light-duty vehicle (LDV) market and for light-duty hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and battery EVs (BEVs).


The market for LDVs is poised for change due to advances in battery energy density and cost, as well as coming innovations in connected and autonomous vehicle systems. Around 2025, fundamental technology and industry trends are expected to enable BEVs to be cost competitive against conventional vehicles without subsides, underlining the likelihood that LDVs will eventually be electric rather than any other alternative.


“Battery cost reductions are having dramatic impacts on BEV cost and range, portending significant market growth in the years ahead,” says Scott Shepard, Senior Research Analyst with Navigant Research. “Further battery innovations alongside vehicle automation promise to significantly disrupt the nature and business of transportation, although this process will take decades to come to full fruition.”


According to the report, long-range BEVs appear positioned for success as prices become competitive with economy brands after subsidies. This marks a milestone that could move BEVs from niche to mainstream, especially as the over 400,000 preorders of Tesla’s Model 3 indicate that the affordable 200-plus mile BEV could have a big impact on the vehicle market.


The report, Market Data: Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts, provides forecasts, market sizing and market share analysis for the overall LDV market and light-duty hybrid EVs, plug-in hybrid EVs and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use are driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices and autonomous mobility system (AMS) penetration within the LDV fleet. Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative scenario conditions, aggressive scenario conditions and the average result of 24 scenario combination conditions. Core model scenario forecasts are also provided alongside HEV, PHEV and BEV sensitivities to each major scenario forecast condition. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.