Market Report & Analysis for 7/9/2018 Afternoon Edition
Afternoon Market Overview
This week’s EIA report was overall bearish based on total combined crude oil and refined product inventories increased for the week. Total combined stocks are now 153 million bbls below the record high hit at the end of the first week of February of 2017. The EIA reported a build in crude oil and distillate fuel stocks with a draw in gasoline inventories Total US crude oil production decreased after increasing the previous week.
Total US production remains above the average annual high hit in 1970 and above the average monthly record high hit in October of 1970 of 10.013 million bpd. Total US crude oil production is now 1.280 million bpd above the average annual record high in 1970 and 904,000 above the record monthly high in October of 1970. Total US crude oil production is about 18 percent above where it was for the same week a year ago.
This week’s production came in at 10.917 million bpd. Total US crude oil stocks increased after decreasing during the previous week as refinery run rates increased with crude oil exports decreasing slightly less than imports increased. Total commercial stocks of crude oil and refined products were higher by 3.3 million bbls after decreasing during the previous week.
The year over year deficit came in at 131.9 million barrels while the deficit versus the five- year average for the same week came in at 14 million barrels. Total combined stocks of crude and refined products have been decreasing for the last few months and are still 153 million bbls off their record high level. Total crude oil inventories increased as total crude oil exports decreased slightly less than imports increased. Total crude stocks increased by 1.3 million barrels. With the increase in crude oil stocks this week the crude oil inventory status versus last year is showing a deficit of 85 million barrels while the deficit versus the five-year average for the same week came in around 7.4 million barrels.
Distillate stocks increased 0.2 million bbls and less than the market expectation for a larger build as total US refinery runs decreased to 97.1 percent of capacity with exports decreasing strongly on the week. The year over year comparison shows current stock levels at about 32.8 million barrels below last year. The five-year average deficit came in around 23.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million bbls and are still off the record high level hit early in 2017. The surplus versus last year came in around 2.4 million barrels while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week came in at 13.8 million barrels.