Market Report & Analysis for 7/4/2018 Afternoon Edition
Afternoon Market Overview
This week the EIA & API inventory data will be delayed by one day for the EIA. The API report will be issued late this afternoon with the EIA inventory report scheduled for release on Thursday at 11 AM. Crude oil stocks likely decreased as refiner demand for crude oil increased and Canadian imports decreased due to issue with Syncrude production. Refined product inventories are projected to decrease in this week’s report.
We are expecting a large draw in US crude oil inventories, and in distillate fuel stocks and gasoline inventories as refinery runs likely increased only slightly. We are expecting total combined crude and refined product inventories to decrease strongly in this week’s report. Expect crude oil stocks to decrease by about 5 million barrels.
If the actual numbers are in sync with our projection the year over year deficit versus last year will widen to 91.3 million bbls while the comparison to the five- year average will now show a deficit of 13.7 million bbls. Canadian imports into the US for the week ending June 22 decreased by 324,000 bpd to 3.247mn bpd and are now 478,000 bpd below the previous all-time record- high reached several weeks ago, per the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Canadian imports likely will show another decrease this week as there is an unplanned outage still evolving in Canadian Syncrude production. With refinery runs expected to increase (around 0.1 percent) We are expecting a draw in gasoline stocks.
Gasoline stocks are expected to decrease by 3 million barrels which would result in the gasoline year over year surplus coming in around 0.9 million bbls while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week will narrow to 12.3 million bbls. Distillate inventories are projected to decrease by 2 million barrels on the week. If the actual EIA data is in sync with our distillate fuel projection inventories versus last year will likely still be well below last year by 35 million bbls while the deficit versus the five-year average will widen to 25.7 million bbls.