Market Report & Analysis for 5/14/2018 Afternoon Edition
Afternoon Market Overview
This week’s EIA report was overall bullish based on total combined crude oil and refined product inventories decreasing for the week. Total combined stocks are now 173.7 million bbls below the record high hit at the end of the first week of February of 2017. The EIA reported a draw in crude oil and in gasoline and distillate fuel stocks
Total US crude oil production increased after increasing during the previous week. Total US production is well above the average annual high hit in 1970 and above the average monthly record high hit in October of 1970 of 10.013 million bpd. Total US crude oil production is now 1.066 million bpd above the average annual record high in 1970 and 690,000 above the record monthly high in October of 1970. Total US crude oil production is about 15.85 percent above where it was for the same week a year ago.
This week’s production came in at 10.703 million bpd. Total US crude oil stocks decreased after increasing during the previous week even as refinery run rates decreased but crude oil imports decreased strongly along with only a modest decrease in crude oil exports. Total commercial stocks of crude oil and refined products were lower by 1.5 million bbls after increasing during the previous week.
The year over year deficit came in at 149.2 million barrels while the deficit versus the five- year average for the same week came in at 16.6 million barrels. Total combined stocks of crude and refined products have been decreasing for the last few months and are now 173.7 million bbls off their record high level. Total crude oil inventories decreased as total crude oil exports decreased while imports also decreased strongly. Total crude stocks decreased by 2.2 million barrels. With the increase in crude oil stocks this week the crude oil inventory status versus last year is showing a deficit of 88.7 million barrels while the deficit versus the five-year average for the same week came in around 9.8 million barrels.
Distillate stocks decreased by 3.8 million bbls versus the market expectations for a smaller draw as total US refinery runs decreased to 90.4 percent of capacity with exports increasing strongly on the week. The year over year comparison shows current stock levels at about 33.8 million barrels below last year. The five-year average deficit came in around 26.1 million barrels.
Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million bbls and are still off the record high level hit early in 2017. The deficit versus last year came in around 5.3 million barrels while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week came in at 8.2 million barrels.
