Market Report for 11/17/2017

by | Nov 17, 2017

The EIA inventory snapshot was overall bearish after a surprise build in crude oil and gasoline stocks. The data was not in directional sync with most of the market expectations. Total US stocks increased after declining for the previous nine weeks in a row possibly an early warning sign that the inventory destocking pattern may be slowing. The report was bearish based on total combined crude oil and refined product inventories increasing modestly after decreasing during the previous week. Total combined stocks are still 101.1 million bbls below the record high hit at the end of the first week of February of this year.

 

The EIA reported a surprise build in crude oil and gasoline inventories with a smaller than expected draw in distillate stocks. Total US crude oil production moved higher setting another new high. Total US production is now above the highest-level hit in the middle of July of 2015. There was a small increase in production from Alaska with the lower forty- eight increasing modestly. Total US crude production increased by 20,000 bpd in the lower forty-eight while increasing by 5,000 bpd in Alaska.

 

Total US crude oil production is now 35,000 bpd above the high hit in early June of 2015. Total US crude oil production is about 10.96 percent above where it was for the same week a year ago. This week’s production came in at 9.645 million bpd. Total commercial stocks of crude oil and refined products increased by 2.8 million bbls after decreasing during the previous week. The year over year deficit came in at 81.1 million barrels while the surplus versus the five- year average for the same week came in at 88.3 million barrels. Total combined stocks of crude and refined products have been decreasing for the last few months and are now 101.1 million bbls off their record high level. Total crude oil inventories increased even as total crude oil exports increased but offset by an increase in crude oil imports into the US. Total crude stocks increased by 2.2 million barrels.

 

With the increase in crude oil stocks this week the crude oil inventory status versus last year is showing a deficit of 31.3 million barrels while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week came in around 58.7 million barrels. Distillate stocks decreased 0.8 million bbls and less than the market expectations as total US refinery run increased to 91 percent of capacity. The year over year comparison shows current stock levels at about 24.1 million barrels below last year. The five-year average deficit came in around 16.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 0.9 million bbls and are still off the record high level hit earlier in the year. The deficit versus last year came in around 11.3 million barrels while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week came in at 0.1 million barrels.