Fuels Market Watch 24

Exclusive daily fuels market analysis by Dr. Nancy Yamaguchi.

Readers, kindly note that we are changing our weekly review to show how the current week has developed. The charts now present hourly price trends from the previous Friday at 9AM EST to the current Friday at 6AM EST, consistent with our daily price trends column.

FUEL MARKETS TODAY – Market Overview

Crude oil futures prices eased modestly at today’s market opening, though prices remained above $64/b and they appear to be creeping back up today. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude forward prices opened at $64.22/b today, down by $0.18 (0.28%) from yesterday’s opening price of $64.40/b. Diesel futures prices also opened slightly lower today, and they too are recovering. Gasoline prices continued to rise. Gasoline futures prices today opened above $2/gallon for the first time in five months, and they continue to trend up this morning.

Gasoline prices typically begin to rise in the spring as refineries undertake maintenance and prepare for the summer driving season. However, prices this season also are rising because of extremely stormy weather and extensive flooding. Flooding in the Midwest has cut ethanol production and availability in many areas. Floods also have shut down rail lines used to transport biofuels, including ethanol to the U.S. West Coast market, where retail gasoline prices have risen by over 32 cents/gallon in just the last four weeks.

Gasoline prices also are receiving support from data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API.) Crude oil prices relaxed moderately when the API reported a 4.1-million barrel (mmbbl) increase in crude oil inventories for the week ending April 5^th. However, the API also reported sizable drawdowns of refined product: 7.1 mmbbls from gasoline inventories and 2.4 mmbbls from diesel inventories. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release official statistics later today.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) just released the Consumer Price Index Summary for March 2019. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2% in February. The Energy Index rose by 3.5%, accounting for around 60% of the overall increase. The annual increase rose to 1.9%. Consumers have enjoyed ultra-low inflation, but this gradually is ending.

GASOLINE

Gasoline opened on the NYMEX at $2.0105/gallon today, up by 2.24 cents (1.11%) from yesterday’s opening price of $1.9881 cents/gallon. Until today, gasoline futures prices had not opened above $2/gallon since November 1^st. Over the past 24 hours from 9AM EST to 9AM EST, gasoline prices rose strongly by 3.59 cents (1.8%.) Gasoline forward prices currently are rising, with trades occurring mainly in the range of $2.01-$2.03/gallon. The latest price is $2.024/gallon.

DIESEL

Diesel opened on the NYMEX at $2.051/gallon today, down by 0.67 cents (0.32%) from yesterday’s opening price of $2.0577/gallon. Over the past 24 hours from 9AM EST to 9AM EST, diesel prices decreased slightly by 0.14 cents (0.07%.) Diesel prices currently are moving back up, trading mainly in the $2.05-$2.06/gallon range. The latest price is $2.0548/gallon.

WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE

WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude forward prices opened at $64.22/b today, down by $0.18 (0.28%) from yesterday’s opening price of $64.40/b. WTI prices have not opened above $64/b since October 10^th, exactly five months ago. Over the past 24 hours from 9AM EST to 9AM EST, WTI crude prices rose slightly by $0.06 (0.09%.) Currently, prices are stable, trading between $64.00/b-$64.50/b. The latest price is $64.34/b.