EIA Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices Update, May 21, 2019

Analysis by Dr. Nancy Yamaguchi

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly data on diesel and gasoline retail prices for the week ended May 20, 2019. Gasoline prices eased modestly for the second week in a row, while diesel prices edged back up slightly. On a national average basis, retail prices for gasoline fell by 1.4 cents/gallon. Retail diesel prices rose slightly by 0.3 cents/gallon. National average prices for gasoline are 7.1 cents/gallon below where they were in the same week one year ago. National average prices for diesel were 11.4 cents/gallon lower than they were in the same week last year.

Futures Prices and Retail Price Outlook

During the week May 13-May 17, 2019, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures prices rose by $1.48/b (2.4%.) Gasoline futures prices rose strongly by 9.54 cents/gallon (4.8%.) Diesel futures prices also rose significantly by 8.39 cents/gallon (4.1%.) Although the relationship between futures market prices and retail prices is not immediate and one-for-one, the most recent trend in futures prices suggests that gasoline and diesel retail prices will rise noticeably in the coming week.

 

Retail Diesel Prices

For the current week ended May 20, retail diesel prices increased by 0.3 cents to arrive at an average price of $3.163/gallon. Between mid-October and late-January, retail diesel prices fell for fourteen consecutive weeks. During those fourteen weeks, the price decline totaled 42.9 cents/gallon. From February through April, diesel prices crept back up by 20.4 cents/gallon. For the current week ended May 20th, diesel prices rose slightly in all PADDs except for the East Coast PADD 1, where prices remained unchanged. The national average price fell to 11.4 cents/gallon below where it was during the same week last year.

In the East Coast PADD 1, diesel prices were unchanged at an average price of $3.176/gallon. Within PADD 1, New England prices were flat at an average of $3.238/gallon. Central Atlantic diesel prices rose by 1.0 cents to average $3.375/gallon. Lower Atlantic prices fell by 0.5 cents/gallon to reach an average price of $3.030/gallon. PADD 1 prices were 9.5 cents/gallon below their prices for the same week last year.

In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail diesel prices increased by 0.3 cents to average $3.049/gallon. Prices were 16.9 cents/gallon below their level for the same week last year.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3, retail diesel prices rose by 0.2 cents to average $2.907/gallon. PADD 3 typically has the lowest diesel prices, and it is the only PADD where retail diesel prices are below the $3/gallon mark. Prices were 14.8 cents lower than for the same week in the previous year.

In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, retail diesel prices rose by 1.1 cents to reach an average of $3.192/gallon. PADD 4 prices were 15.6 cents lower than for the same week in the prior year.

In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail diesel prices rose by 0.4 cents to average $3.794/gallon. PADD 5 prices were 2.9 cents above their level from last year. Prices excluding California decreased by 0.3 cents to arrive at an average of $3.352/gallon. This price was 15.1 cents below the retail price for the same week last year. California diesel prices rose by 0.9 cents to arrive at an average price of $4.145/gallon. California is the only market for which prices have risen above $4/gallon, and prices have been above $4/gallon for the past five weeks. California diesel prices are 17.2 cents higher than they were at the same week last year.

Retail Gasoline Prices

U.S. retail gasoline prices fell by 1.4 cents to average $2.852/gallon during the week ended May 20. Prices fell in PADDs 1, 3 and 5, while rising in PADDs 2 and 4. PADD 4. Retail prices for the current week were 7.1 cents per gallon lower than they were one year ago. Gasoline prices hit a peak of $2.903/gallon during the week ended October 8, 2018. Prices then slid downward for 14 weeks in a row, shedding a total of 66.6 cents per gallon. In the next 17 weeks, prices marched back up by 66.0 cents/gallon. Prices came very close to the peak they hit in early October, before the past two weeks brought an easing of prices.

For the current week ended May 20, East Coast PADD 1 retail prices for gasoline fell by 3.1 cents to average $2.723/gallon. The average price was 13.7 cents/gallon below where it was during the same week last year. Within PADD 1, New England prices declined by 1.0 cent to average $2.829/gallon. Central Atlantic market prices fell by 1.9 cents to average $2.893/gallon. Prices in the Lower Atlantic market dropped by 4.4 cents to average $2.591/gallon.

In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail gasoline prices rose by 0.4 cents to reach an average price of $2.742/gallon. PADD 2 prices for the current week were 10.9 cents/gallon lower than they were for the same week last year.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3 market, gasoline prices edged down by 0.1 cents to average $2.517/gallon. PADD 3 continues to have the lowest average prices among the PADDs. Prices for the week were 15.9 cents lower than for the same week last year.

In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, gasoline pump prices rose by 1.8 cents to arrive at an average price of $2.982/gallon. This was the largest price increase among the PADDs. Prices have been rising rapidly in PADD 4. This week’s prices were 1.4 cents higher than at the same time last year.

In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail gasoline prices fell by 2.3 cents to arrive at an average of $3.667/gallon. PADD 5 continues to have the highest gasoline prices among the five PADDs. Excluding California, West Coast prices fell by 1.1 cents to average $3.345/gallon. This price was 13.7 cents higher than at the same time last year. In California, pump prices fell by 3.4 cents to average $3.934/gallon. California average prices had exceeded $4/gallon the prior two weeks. California prices are now 31.6 cents per gallon above their levels from the same week last year.