EIA Gasoline and Diesel Retail Prices Update, July 17, 2018

Analysis by Dr. Nancy Yamaguchi

 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly data on diesel and gasoline retail prices for the week ended July 16, 2018. Prices were relatively stable, changing by only a fraction of a cent. On a national average basis, weekly gasoline prices rose by 0.8 cents, while diesel prices decreased by 0.4 cents. Gasoline prices rose in PADDs 1 and 2, while declining in PADDs 3, 4 and 5. Diesel prices fell in all PADDs countrywide, but by relatively modest amounts.

Crude prices dropped sharply last week, shedding $2.86/b between Monday, July 9 and Friday, July 13. As of the time of this writing, WTI forward prices have fallen below $68/b for the first time in three weeks. Current prices are $67.81/b. Gasoline and diesel futures prices also have dropped significantly, most likely signaling a drop in retail prices in the coming week.

For the week ended July 6, US crude production once again (for five weeks running) was reported unchanged at 10,900 bpd. For the year to date through the week ended June 29th, US crude production has risen by 1.408 mmbpd.

For the current week ended July 16, diesel prices decreased by 0.4 cents to settle at an average price of $3.239/gallon. Prices fell in all PADDs, albeit modestly. The national average price was 74.8 cents per gallon higher than it was one year ago.

In the East Coast PADD 1, diesel prices decreased by 0.2 cents to arrive at an average price of $3.236/gallon. Within PADD 1, New England prices rose by 0.4 cents to average $3.283/gallon. Central Atlantic diesel prices remained unchanged at $3.405/gallon. Lower Atlantic prices decreased by 0.4 cents to arrive at an average price of $3.108/gallon. PADD 1 prices were 70.4 cents/gallon above their prices for the same week last year.

In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail diesel prices decreased by 0.5 cents to average $3.171/gallon. Prices were 73.3 cents/gallon above their level for the same week last year.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3, retail diesel prices were unchanged at an average of $3.004/gallon. This price was 68.0 cents higher than for the same week in the previous year. Until the week ended May 14, PADD 3 had been the only market where diesel prices had remained below $3/gallon. Currently, average retail prices for diesel are above the $3/gallon mark in all PADDs.

In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, retail diesel prices remained flat at an average of $3.370/gallon. PADD 4 prices were 78.3 cents higher than in the prior year.

In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail diesel prices fell by 0.8 cents to average $3.741/gallon. This price was 97.0 cents above its level from last year. Prices excluding California dropped by 1.5 cents to average $3.456/gallon. This price was 80.0 cents above the retail price for the same week last year. California diesel prices decreased slightly by 0.2 cent to arrive at an average price of $3.968/gallon. Six weeks ago, California prices had topped the $4/gallon mark. California diesel prices were 110.3 cents above last year’s price. California is the only state where diesel prices are more than a dollar per gallon higher than they were last year.

U.S. retail gasoline prices rose by 0.8 cents to average $2.865/gallon during the week ended July 16. Prices rose in PADDs 1 and 2. Prices fell in PADDs 3, 4 and 5. The national average price was 58.7cents per gallon higher than it was one year ago.

For the current week ended July 16, East Coast PADD 1 retail prices for gasoline rose by 2.0 cents to average $2.801/gallon. The average price was 58.7 cents higher than last year’s price. Within PADD 1, New England prices decreased slightly by 0.1 cents to average $2.888/gallon. Central Atlantic market prices rose by 0.4 cents to average $2.932/gallon. Prices in the Lower Atlantic market rose by 3.7 cents to average $2.697/gallon.

In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail gasoline prices rose by 1.5 cents to arrive at an average price of $2.796/gallon. Gasoline pump prices were 61.5 cents higher than they were one year ago.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3 market, gasoline prices dropped by 1.7 cents to average $2.602/gallon. PADD 3 continues to have the lowest average prices among the PADDs. Prices for the week were 57.4 cents higher than for the same week in 2017.

In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, gasoline pump prices fell by 1.1 cents to average $2.955/gallon. PADD 4 prices were 62.6 cents higher than at the same time in 2017.

In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail gasoline prices dropped by 1.6 cents to arrive at an average of $3.378/gallon. This was 57.1 cents higher than at the same time a year ago. PADD 5 continues to have the highest gasoline prices among the five PADDs. During the year to date, PADD 5 has been the only PADD where retail gasoline prices have exceeded $3/gallon. Excluding California, West Coast prices declined by 1.6 cents to average $3.185/gallon. This was 59.7 cents higher than at the same time in 2017. In California, pump prices fell by 1.5 cents to average $3.535/gallon. California prices were 60.1 cents per gallon above their levels from last year.