DTN’s 2017 Thanksgiving Drive Outlook

By Brian Milne, DTN editor & product manager and Jeff Johnson, DTN chief science officer

 

Higher Gasoline Prices Not Slowing Travel

Prices for gasoline sold at retail outlets across the United States have been on an upswing in November, but the Thanksgiving holiday travel period has little to do with the increase. Despite rising prices, more Americans are expected to travel over this year’s five-day holiday period than in the past 12 years.

At $2.59 a gallon — already $0.41 more than 2016 prices — the U.S. average for regular grade gasoline is set to increase by a couple of cents for the fourth consecutive week. That puts the national average above the $2.40 a gallon forecast by the Energy Information Administration for all of 2017 — and well above 2016’s $2.15 average.

Pass through costs from the wholesale market continue to filter to consumers, with wholesale prices rallying from a three-month low in early October to a more than two-month high in early November, when crude oil prices spiked to their highest point in 28 months. The spike is due to tightening global oil supply-demand after three years of oversupply and heightened geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

Wholesale gasoline prices moderated in mid-November, as crude costs dropped back modestly. This should provide some relief to Americans filling up at their local gasoline stations, as should minimal holiday travel weather concerns.

Minimal Weather Risks Expected For the Holiday Travel Period

Travelers will likely be thankful for limited weather troubles across the United States through next weekend. Following three weeks of abnormally chilly weather across the northern half of the country, a reprieve will arrive this week. Much warmer weather is on tap for the western half of the nation, with potential record warmth in the Central Plains on Friday. Areas generally east of the Mississippi River will see slightly colder than average readings with a brief warm-up for Saturday.

 

 

Storminess will be primarily confined to the Northwest with rain and mountain snow both early and late in the travel period. A fast-moving storm tracking eastward along the Canada–United States border on Friday and Saturday will bring a period of light rain to border states. In the Northeast, an offshore storm system will bring rain on Wednesday to eastern New England with light snowfall possible from northern New York into western Maine. Lake effect snow is expected Saturday night and Sunday, east and south of the Great Lakes as a surge of arctic air advances into the eastern United States. However, amounts should be mainly light and localized.