In light of recent geopolitical events (attacks against Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure over the weekend), Powerhouse will be publishing a special Energy Market Situation in the coming days.

Al pic 2009_cropped

Alan Levine, Chairman of Powerhouse

Supply/Demand Balances

Supply/demand data in the United States for the week ending September 6, 2019, were released by the Energy Information Administration.

Total commercial stocks of petroleum fell by 3.1 million barrels during the week ending Sept. 6, 2019.

Commercial crude oil supplies in the United States declined 6.9 million barrels from the previous report week to 423.0 million barrels.

Crude oil inventory changes by PAD District:
PADD 1: Down 0.5 million barrels to 10.5 million barrels
PADD 2: Down 0.6 million barrels to 124.2 million barrels
PADD 3: Down 2.5 million barrels to 217.9 million barrels
PADD 4: Down 0.7 million barrels to 19.3 million barrels
PADD 5: Down 2.6 million barrels to 44.2 million barrels

Cushing, Oklahoma inventories fell 0.8 million barrels from the previous report week to 39.3 million barrels.

Domestic crude oil production was unchanged from the previous report week at 12.4 million barrels per day.

Crude oil imports averaged 6.725 million barrels per day, a daily decrease of 180,000 barrels. Exports rose 234,000 barrels daily to 3.295 million barrels per day.

Refineries used 95.1 percent of capacity, up 0.3% from the previous report week.

Crude oil inputs to refineries increased 114,000 barrels daily; there were 17.495 million barrels per day of crude oil run to facilities. Gross inputs, which include blending stocks, rose 64,000 barrels daily to reach 17.824 million barrels daily.

Total petroleum product inventories rose 3.8 million barrels from the previous report week.

Gasoline stocks decreased 0.7 million barrels daily from the previous report week; total stocks are 228.9 million barrels.

Demand for gasoline rose 336,000 barrels per day to 9.807 million barrels per day.

Total product demand decreased 181,000 barrels daily to 21.440 million barrels per day.

Distillate fuel oil stocks increased 2.7 million barrels from the previous report week; distillate stocks are at 136.2 million barrels. EIA reported national distillate demand at 3.804 million barrels per day during the report week, a decrease of 329,000 barrels daily.

Propane stocks increased 0.7 million barrels from the previous report week; propane stocks are 97.8 million barrels. The report estimated current demand at 1.291 million barrels per day, an increase of 306,000 barrels daily from the previous report week.


Natural Gas

Domestic natural gas production continues to increase. IEA reports that a new daily production of 92.8 million cubic feet was reached on August 19, 2019.  This is part of a larger story of production growth. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts dry natural gas production to average 93.4 Bcf/d from September through the end of 2019. U.S. production grew by 7.1 Bcf/d between August 2018 and August 2019, reflecting gains primarily in the Northeast.

According to the Energy Information Administration:

Net injections into storage totaled 78 Bcf for the week ending September 6, compared with the five-year (2014–18) average net injections of 73 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 68 Bcf during the same week. Working gas stocks totaled 3,019 Bcf, which is 77 Bcf lower than the five-year average and 393 Bcf more than last year at this time.

The average rate of net injections into storage is 29% higher than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 10.8 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, total inventories would be 3,615 Bcf on October 31, which is 77 Bcf lower than the five-year average of 3,692 Bcf for that time of year.


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