Analysis by Dr. Nancy Yamaguchi

 

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published gasoline and diesel retail prices for the week ended September 11, 2017. Crude and refined product prices continue to show impacts of Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma. Miami gasoline price estimates are unavailable.

At the national level, retail gasoline prices rose by a modest 0.6 cents/gallon. Prices rose from $2.679/gallon during the week ended September 4 to $2.685/gallon during the week ended September 11. Gasoline prices appear to be normalizing, after spiking in response to the hurricanes. During the previous week ended September 4, retail gasoline prices jumped by an average of 28 cents/gallon.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3 market, gasoline prices eased by 0.5 cents as additional supplies became available. This was the only PADD where prices decreased. The price increases in other PADDs were:

  • East Coast PADD 1 gasoline prices rose by 0.7 cents
  • Midwest PADD 2 gasoline prices rose by 0.2 cents
  • Rocky Mountain PADD 4 gasoline prices rose by 0.5 cents
  • West Coast PADD 5 gasoline prices rose by 2.1 cents

At the national level, retail diesel prices rose by 4.4 cents/gallon. Prices rose from $2.758/gallon during the week ended September 4 to $2.802/gallon during the week ended September 11. During the previous week ended September 4, retail diesel prices surged by 15.3 cents/gallon.

Retail diesel prices rose in all PADDs:

  • East Coast PADD 1 diesel prices rose by 4.4 cents
  • Midwest PADD 2 diesel prices rose by 4.6 cents
  • Gulf Coast PADD 3 diesel prices rose by 3.2 cents
  • Rocky Mountain PADD 4 diesel prices rose by 2.9 cents
  • West Coast PADD 5 diesel prices rose by 5.8 cents

The America Petroleum Institute (API) reportedly forecast that U.S. crude inventories rose by 6.181 mmbbls during the week ended September 8, well below the industry survey estimate of 10.1 mmbbls. The API reported a 7.896-mmbbl drawdown in gasoline inventories, nearly twice the industry survey result of 4.0 mmbbls. Distillate inventories were reportedly drawn down by 1.805 mmbbls, versus the industry expectation of 0.3 mmbbls.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast of global oil demand for 2017 by 100 kbpd to 1.6 mmbpd total, an increase of 1.7%. Crude prices also are strengthening today in response.

WTI crude opened at $48.34/b this session, an increase of $0.22 from yesterday’s opening. Currently this morning, WTI prices have climbed to $48.71/b, up by $0.37 since today’s opening. The daily price range has been $48.12-$48.77/b.