Market Report & Analysis for 8/24/2018 Morning Edition

by | Aug 23, 2018 | EMI, Fuels & Markets, FutureRack, Industry News

Morning Market Overview

This week’s EIA report was overall bullish based on total combined crude oil and refined product inventories decreasing for the week. Total combined stocks are now 135.1 million bbls below the record high hit at the end of the first week of February of 2017. The EIA reported a build in crude oil and in distillate fuel inventories and a draw in gasoline.

Total US crude oil production increased after increasing the previous week. Total US production remains above the average annual high hit in 1970 and above the average monthly record high hit in October of 1970 of 10.013 million bpd. Total US crude production was higher by 100,000 bpd in the lower forty-eight while increasing by 34,000 bpd in Alaska. Total US crude oil production is now 1.263 million bpd above the average annual record high in 1970 and 0.887 million bpd above the record monthly high in October of 1970. Total US crude oil production is about 15.95 percent above where it was for the same week a year ago. This week’s production came in at 11 million bpd. Total US crude oil stocks decreased after increasing during the previous week as crude oil imports decreased strongly with exports decreasing modestly.

Total commercial stocks of crude oil and refined products were lower by 2.5 million bbls and 79.7 million barrels below last year while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week came in at 4 million barrels. Total combined stocks of crude and refined products have been decreasing for the last few months and are 135.1 million bbls off their record high level. Total crude oil inventories decreased as total crude oil exports decreased modestly while imports decreased strongly. Total crude stocks decreased by 5.8 million barrels. With the decrease in crude oil stocks this week the crude oil inventory status versus last year is showing a deficit of 54.8 million barrels while the deficit versus the five-year average for the same week came in around 1.1 million barrels.

Distillate stocks increased 1.8 million bbls versus the market expectation for a smaller build as total US refinery runs held steady at 98.1 percent of capacity with exports increasing on the week. The year over year comparison shows current stock levels at about 17.6 million barrels below last year. The five-year average deficit came in around 10.3 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million bbls and are still off the record high level hit early in 2017. The surplus versus last year came in around 4.4 million barrels while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week came in at 14.6 million barrels.