Market Report & Analysis for 6/27/2018 Afternoon Edition

by | Jun 26, 2018 | EMI, Fuels & Markets, Industry News

Afternoon Market Overview

This week the EIA & API inventory data will be released on their regular schedule. The API report will be issued late this afternoon with the EIA inventory report is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 10:30 AM.

Crude oil stocks likely decreased as refiner demand for crude oil increased while refined product inventories are projected to be mixed in this week’s report. We are expecting a draw in US crude oil inventories, a build in distillate fuel stocks and a draw in gasoline inventories as refinery runs likely increased. We are expecting total combined crude and refined product inventories to increase slightly in this week’s report. Expect crude oil stocks to decrease by about 2.4 million barrels. If the actual numbers are in sync with our projection the year over year deficit versus last year will widen to 85.1 million bbls while the comparison to the five-year average will now show a deficit of 5.3 million bbls.

Canadian imports into the US for the week ending June 15 decreased by 140,000 bpd to 3.571mn bpd and are now 154,000 bpd below the previous all-time record- high reached several weeks ago, per the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Canadian imports likely will show another decrease this week as there is an unplanned outage still evolving in Canadian Syncrude production. With refinery runs expected to increase (around 0.1 percent) we are expecting a build in gasoline stocks.

Gasoline stocks are expected to increase by 1.3 million barrels which would result in the gasoline year over year surplus coming in around 0.3 million bbls while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week will narrow to 14.5 million bbls.

Distillate inventories are projected to increase by 1.2 million barrels on the week. If the actual EIA data is in sync with our distillate fuel projection inventories versus last year will likely still be well below last year by 33.7 million bbls while the deficit versus the five-year average will widen to 22.5 million bbls.