Afternoon Market Overview

The EIA & API inventory data will be released on their regular schedule. The API report will be issued late this afternoon with the EIA inventory report scheduled for release on Wednesday at 10:30 AM.

Crude oil stocks likely increased as refiner demand for crude oil decreased while refined product inventories are projected to be lower in this week’s report. We are expecting a build in US crude oil inventories, a draw in distillate fuel stocks due to the weather and a draw in gasoline inventories. We are expecting total combined crude and refined product inventories to come in around unchanged in this week’s report. Expect crude oil stocks to increase by about 3 million barrels.

If the actual numbers are in sync with our projection the year over year comparison for crude oil will now show a deficit of 101.9 million barrels while the overhang versus the five-year average for the same week will come in around 1.3 million barrels. With refinery runs expected to decrease (around 0.4 percent) we are expecting a draw in gasoline stocks.

Gasoline stocks are expected to decrease by 1.5 million barrels which would result in the gasoline year over year surplus coming in around 1 million barrels while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week will come in around 12 million barrels.

Distillate inventories are projected to decrease by 1.5 million barrels on the week.

If the actual EIA data is in sync with our distillate fuel projection inventories versus last year will likely now be about 25 million barrels below last year while the deficit versus the five-year average will come in around 4.6 million barrels.