Afternoon Market Overview

This week’s inventory snapshot was bullish after a modest draw in total combined US stocks. The data was not directional sync with most of the market expectations, and the actual values overshot the market projections. Total combined US stocks was lower after declining during the previous week.

The EIA report was overall bullish based on total combined crude oil and refined product inventories declining for the week. Total combined stocks are now 170.4 million bbls below the record high hit at the end of the first week of February of 2017. The EIA reported a build in crude oil with draws in both distillate fuel stocks and in gasoline inventories that were larger than the market expectations.

Total US crude oil production increased after increasing during the previous week. Total US production is well above the average annual high hit in 1970 and above the average monthly record high hit in October of 1970 of 10.013 million bpd. Total commercial stocks of crude oil and refined products were lower by 1.6 million bbls after declining during the previous week. The year over year deficit came in at 146.9 million barrels while the surplus versus the five- year average for the same week came in at 12 million barrels.

Total combined stocks of crude and refined products have been decreasing for the last few months and are now 170.4 million bbls off their record high level. Total crude oil inventories increased as total crude oil exports increased slightly while imports increased significantly. Total crude stocks increased by 1.6 million barrels. With the increase in crude oil stocks this week the crude oil inventory status versus last year is showing a deficit of 104.1 million barrels while the deficit versus the five-year average for the same week came in around 6.4 million barrels.

Distillate stocks decreased by 2 million bbls versus the market expectations for a smaller draw even as total US refinery runs increased to 92.3 percent of capacity, with exports decreasing modestly on the week. The year over year comparison shows current stock levels at about 23.9 million barrels below last year. The five-year average deficit came in around 12.1 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.5 million bbls and are still off the record high level hit early in 2017. The deficit versus last year came in around 0.1 million barrels while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week came in at 9.9 million barrels.