Morning Market Overview

Oil prices were lower for the third trading session in a row Thursday with the spot Nymex April contract now moving into the lower half of the downward sloping linear regression channel or a bearish technical formation.

The fundamentals were neutral in this week’s EIA inventory snapshot, but the externals have been mostly bearish this week and playing a more pronounced price direction role than the short-term fundamentals. The US dollar was modestly higher against most currency pairs and in particular versus the euro after the ECB indicated that measures of inflation in Europe remained subdued suggesting that the ECB is not likely to raise interest rates anytime soon.

Further adding to negative side for oil is an uncertain equity complex this week as market participants digest the signing of tariffs on steel and aluminum and thus setting up the possibility for a global trade war. On the financial front global equity markets were mostly higher around the world with the US markets modestly higher even as equity market players remain uncertain over the pending tariffs that may be imposed by the US.

The Index was higher with the US market trading on both sides of the ledger throughout most of the trading session. The EMI Index increased by 0.11 percent with the year to date gain now at 2.9 percent. Three of the ten bourses in the Index are still in positive territory for 2018. London is in the worst performing spot in the Index with Brazil in the top spot with a 10.9 percent gain for the year.

The slightly higher value direction in global equity markets is a neutral price driver for the oil complex. On the currency front the US dollar Index was higher for the day with the Yen/USD and the Euro/USD lower. Overall the currency markets were a negative price driver for the oil complex.