Afternoon Market Overview

This week the EIA & API inventory data will be released on their regular schedule. The API report will be issued late this afternoon with the EIA inventory report scheduled for release on Wednesday at 10:30 AM.

The This week’s US inventory data will be reflective of a normal operating environment as the hurricane is now over. US inventories are following the normal predictive models. Crude oil stocks likely decreased as refiner demand for crude oil increased while refined product inventories are also projected to be mixed in this week’s report.

• We are expecting a modest draw in US oil inventories, a modest decline in distillate fuel stocks and a build in gasoline inventories.
• We are expecting total combined crude and refined product inventories to show a draw in this week’s report. Expect crude oil stocks to decrease by about 2.3 million barrels.

If the actual numbers are in sync with our projection the year over year comparison for crude oil will now show a deficit of 32.3 million barrels while the overhang versus the five-year average for the same week will come in around 56.2 million barrels. With refinery runs expected to increase (by around 0.6 percent) we are expecting a build in gasoline stocks. Gasoline stocks are expected to increase by 1 million barrels which would result in the gasoline year over year deficit coming in around 12.6 million barrels while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week will come in around 0.1 million barrels. Distillate inventories are projected to decrease by 2.1 million barrels on the week.

If the actual EIA data is in sync with our distillate fuel projection inventories versus last year will likely now be about 26.5 million barrels below last year while the deficit versus the five-year average will come in around 18.4 million barrels.