Analysis by Dr. Nancy Yamaguchi

 

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly data on diesel and gasoline retail prices for the week ended October 23, 2017. At the national level, gasoline prices fell by a penny per gallon, while diesel prices rose by a penny per gallon. Gasoline prices declined in PADDs 1, 3 and 5, and they rose in PADDs 2 and 4. Diesel prices rose in all PADDs nationwide.

The U.S. market in October has been influenced by Hurricane Nate and by the LLOG Exploration Co.’s oil spill off the coast of Louisiana. U.S. production for the week ended October 13 dropped by 1074 kbpd versus the prior week. Crude exports jumped by 528 kbpd, and crude inputs to refining fell by 819 kbpd. Global crude prices have strengthened, touching the $52/b level at present.

For the current week ended October 23rd, diesel prices rose by 1.0 cent to arrive at an average price of $2.797/gallon. Diesel prices were robust over the summer, rising steadily in August and September. Prices have been more stable in October, though rising crude prices and winter demand may propel diesel prices higher.

PADD 1 retail diesel prices remained unchanged at $2.797/gallon. Within the PADD, New England prices rose by 0.5 cents to average $2.797/gallon. Central Atlantic diesel prices decreased by 0.2 cents, to an average of $2.924/gallon. Lower Atlantic prices edged up by 0.1 cents to average $2.715/gallon. PADD 1 prices were 32.9 cents/gallon above their prices for the same week last year.

In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail diesel prices increased by 2.2 cents to average $2.779/gallon. Prices were 32.8 cents/gallon above their level for the same week last year.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3, retail diesel prices rose slightly by 0.2 cents to average $2.614/gallon. This price was 26.1 cents higher than in the previous year.

In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, retail diesel prices rose by 3.1 cents to $2.917/gallon. This was the largest price hike among the five PADDs. This price was 36.7 cents higher than in the prior year.

In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail diesel prices increased by 0.9 cents to an average of $3.098/gallon. This price was 35.1 cents above its level from last year. Prices excluding California rose by 1.2 cents to $3.015/gallon, which was 37.0 cents above the retail price for the same week last year. California diesel prices rose by 0.7 cents to an average price of $3.166/gallon, 33.8 cents higher than last year’s price. PADD 5 typically has the highest fuel prices in the country, and it remains the only PADD to have diesel prices above $3 per gallon despite the gradual increase in nationwide prices.

 

 

U.S. retail gasoline prices fell by 1.0 cent for the week ended October 23, to arrive at an average price of $2.479/gallon. Gasoline prices have eased by over 18 cents per gallon from the highs seen after Hurricane Harvey. The EIA’s weekly supply data indicate that gasoline product supplied during the first half of October has dropped by nearly 400 kbpd from its August level. As colder weather approaches, the price differential between diesel and gasoline has widened.

For the current week ended October 23rd, East Coast PADD 1 retail prices for gasoline dropped by 2.3 cents to $2.447/gallon. The average price was 21.5 cents higher than last year’s price. Prices decreased by 1.8 cents in New England to $2.562/gallon. Central Atlantic market prices dropped by 2.2 cents to $2.539/gallon. Prices in the Lower Atlantic market fell by 2.5 cents, to an average price of $2.344/gallon. This was 14.8 cents higher than last year’s average price for the same week.

In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail gasoline prices rose during the week, increasing by 1.9 cents to average $2.394/gallon. Gasoline pump prices were 28.7 cents higher than they were one year ago.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3 market, gasoline prices fell by 3.6 cents to average $2.226/gallon. This was the largest price drop among the five PADDs. PADD 3 has the lowest average price among the five PADDs. Prices for the week were 17.0 cents higher than for the same week in 2016.

In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, gasoline pump prices increased slightly by 0.3 cents, to average $2.529/gallon. This price was 24.3 cents higher than at the same time in 2016.

In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail gasoline prices decreased by 1.3 cents to average $2.925/gallon. This was 24.5 cents higher than at the same time a year ago. PADD 5 typically has the highest gasoline prices among the five PADDs, and its retail gasoline prices had been above $3/gallon until the past four weeks of October. Excluding California, West Coast prices fell by 1.2 cents to an average of $2.687/gallon. This was 21.1 cents higher than at the same time in 2016. In California, prices declined by 1.3 cents, arriving at an average pump price of $3.064/gallon. California was the only state to have average prices reported at above $3 per gallon.