Analysis by Dr. Nancy Yamaguchi

 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly data on diesel and gasoline retail prices for the week ended July 23, 2018. Prices fell for both fuels in all PADDs. On a national average basis, weekly gasoline prices dropped by 3.4 cents, while diesel prices fell by 1.9 cents.

Crude prices dropped significantly last week, falling by $2.26/b between Monday, July 16 and Friday, July 20. This was the second week of price declines, following a drop of $2.86/b between Monday, July 9 and Friday, July 13. As of the time of this writing, WTI forward prices are holding below $68/b. Current prices are $67.75/b. Gasoline and diesel futures prices also have fallen, most likely signaling a continued decline in retail prices in the coming week.

For the current week ended July 23rd, diesel prices fell by 1.9 cents to settle at an average price of $3.220/gallon. Prices fell in all PADDs. The national average price was 71.3 cents per gallon higher than it was one year ago.

In the East Coast PADD 1, diesel prices dropped by 1.9 cents to arrive at an average price of $3.217/gallon. Within PADD 1, New England prices fell by 1.4 cents to average $3.269/gallon. Central Atlantic diesel prices decreased by 1.6 cents to average $3.389/gallon. Lower Atlantic prices dropped by 2.1 cents to arrive at an average price of $3.087/gallon. PADD 1 prices were 67.1 cents/gallon above their prices for the same week last year.

In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail diesel prices dropped by 2.9 cents to average $3.142/gallon. This was the largest price drop among the five PADDs. Prices were 69.0 cents/gallon above their level for the same week last year.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3, retail diesel prices decreased by 1.1 cents to average $2.993/gallon. This price was 65.1 cents higher than for the same week in the previous year. Until the week ended May 14, PADD 3 had been the only market where diesel prices had remained below $3/gallon, and it is the only market where prices have receded once again below $3/gallon.

In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, retail diesel prices edged down slightly by 0.1 cents to average $3.369/gallon. PADD 4 prices were 77.1 cents higher than in the prior year.

In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail diesel prices fell by 2.3 cents to average $3.718/gallon. This price was 93.0 cents above its level from last year. Prices excluding California fell by 2.0 cents to average $3.436/gallon. This price was 75.8 cents above the retail price for the same week last year. California diesel prices dropped by 2.5 cent to arrive at an average price of $3.943/gallon. Seven weeks ago, California prices had topped the $4/gallon mark. California diesel prices were 106.6 cents above last year’s price. California is the only state where diesel prices are more than a dollar per gallon higher than they were last year.

U.S. retail gasoline prices dropped by 3.4 cents to average $2.831/gallon during the week ended July 23. Prices fell in all PADDs. The national average price was 51.9 cents per gallon higher than it was one year ago.

For the current week ended July 23rd, East Coast PADD 1 retail prices for gasoline declined by 2.5 cents to average $2.776/gallon. The average price was 51.2 cents higher than last year’s price. Within PADD 1, New England prices decreased by 1.3 cents to average $2.875/gallon. Central Atlantic market prices fell by 2.5 cents to average $2.907/gallon. Prices in the Lower Atlantic market dropped by 2.9 cents to average $2.668/gallon.

In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail gasoline prices fell sharply by 5.7 cents to arrive at an average price of $2.739/gallon. Gasoline pump prices were 52.6 cents higher than they were one year ago.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3 market, gasoline prices dropped by 2.9 cents to average $2.573/gallon. PADD 3 continues to have the lowest average prices among the PADDs. Prices for the week were 50.5 cents higher than for the same week in 2017.

In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, gasoline pump prices fell by 2.1 cents to average $2.934/gallon. PADD 4 prices were 59.3 cents higher than at the same time in 2017.

In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail gasoline prices dropped by 2.0 cents to arrive at an average of $3.358/gallon. This was 55.1 cents higher than at the same time a year ago. PADD 5 continues to have the highest gasoline prices among the five PADDs. During the year to date, PADD 5 has been the only PADD where retail gasoline prices have exceeded $3/gallon. Excluding California, West Coast prices declined by 2.0 cents to average $3.165/gallon. This was 58.9 cents higher than at the same time in 2017. In California, pump prices fell by 2.1 cents to average $3.514/gallon. California prices were 57.3 cents per gallon above their levels from last year.