The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly data on diesel and gasoline retail prices for the week ended February 24, 2020. Gasoline prices rose for the second week in a row. Diesel prices continued to fall, though only a fraction of a cent per gallon. Gasoline prices rose by 3.8 cents/gallon, while diesel prices fell by 0.8 cents/gallon. The national average price for gasoline was $2.466/gallon, which was 7.6 cents/gallon above the price for the same week one year ago. Until November, gasoline prices had been below their levels from last year. Diesel prices had been above last year’s level also, but the recent downward price path has now sent diesel prices back below their levels of last year. On a national average basis, the retail price for diesel averaged $2.882/gallon, which was 16.6 cents/gallon lower than the price in the same week last year.

Retail prices for diesel have now fallen for seven consecutive weeks, shedding a total of 19.7 cents/gallon. Gasoline prices continued to recover after a five-week downward trend, which had brought a total decline of 15.9 cents/gallon.

Futures Prices and Retail Price Outlook

During the week February 18, 2020 to February 21, 2020, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures prices rose by $1.25/barrel (2.4%.) Gasoline futures prices rose strongly by 7.08 cents/gallon (4.5%.) Diesel futures prices declined by 1.28 cents/gallon (0.8%.) The prices reflected market optimism on reports of potential progress against coronavirus 2019-nCoV, now being called SARS-CoV-2. The optimism was misplaced. Investors sought safe havens upon news of new cases and casualties. Monday February 24 brought the most severe market downturn in approximately two years. As of Tuesday February 25, WTI futures prices have fallen back to the $51.00/b-$52.00/b range. While the relationship between futures prices and retail prices is not immediate or one-for-one, the current retreat in futures prices may signal a decrease in gasoline and diesel retail prices in the coming week.

Retail Diesel Prices

Retail prices for diesel have now fallen for seven consecutive weeks, shedding a total of 19.7 cents/gallon. For the current week ended February 24, retail diesel prices fell by 0.8 cents to settle at an average price of $2.882/gallon. Retail diesel prices had been below the $3/gallon mark until the attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in mid-September. They remained above the $3/gallon mark until the first week of February. Leading up to 2020, between mid-October 2018 and late-January 2019, retail diesel prices fell for fourteen consecutive weeks. During those fourteen weeks, the price decline totaled 42.9 cents/gallon. From February through April, diesel prices crept back up by 20.4 cents/gallon. The month of May brought a modest reversal in the upward trend in diesel prices. During the five weeks of June including the week ended July 1st, diesel prices fell more substantially, declining by 10.9 cents/gallon. For the current week ended February 24th, diesel prices fell in all PADDs countrywide, though the price decline was less than one cent in all PADDs. The national average price for the week was 16.6 cents/gallon below where it was during the same week last year.

In the East Coast PADD 1, diesel prices fell by 0.9 cents to settle at an average price of $2.931/gallon. Within PADD 1, New England prices fell by 0.9 cents to average $3.061/gallon. Central Atlantic diesel prices declined by 0.6 cents to average $3.117/gallon. Lower Atlantic prices fell by 1.4 cents to an average price of $2.779/gallon. PADD 1 prices were 16.3 cents/gallon below their levels for the same week last year.

In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail diesel prices edged down by 0.1 cent to average $2.756/gallon. Prices were 21.3 cents below their level for the same week last year. PADD 2 joined PADD 3 during the week ended June 17th in having diesel prices fall below $3/gallon. Prices subsequently fell below $3/gallon in PADD 4 and PADD 1. PADD 5 is the only region where diesel prices remain above $3/gallon.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3, retail diesel prices fell by 0.4 cents to arrive at an average of $2.654/gallon. PADD 3 continues to have the lowest diesel prices among the PADDs, currently 22.8 cents below the U.S. average. Prices were 19.5 cents below their level for the same week in the previous year.

In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, retail diesel prices fell by 0.9 cents to settle at an average of $2.849/gallon. PADD 4 prices were 6.4 cents lower than for the same week in the prior year.

In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail diesel prices fell by 0.9 cents to average $3.459/gallon. PADD 5 prices were 3.4 cents below their level from last year. Until December 2019, PADD 5 had been the only district where diesel prices were higher than they were in the same week last year. Prices rose until this was true in all other PADDs, but prices have been falling steadily, and the national average price is now below its level of last year. Prices excluding California fell by 0.9 cents to arrive at an average of $3.072/gallon. This price was 6.9 cents below the retail price for the same week last year. California diesel prices rose by 0.4 cents to arrive at an average price of $3.778/gallon. This was the only price increase among the key markets. Until the week ended June 24th, California had been the only major market where diesel prices were above $4/gallon, where they had been for nine weeks. California prices retreated below $4/gallon from July through October, rose above $4/gallon again during the first three weeks of November, and eased since then. California diesel prices were 0.6 cents higher than they were at the same week last year.

Retail Gasoline Prices

Retail gasoline prices rose for the second week in a row, rising by 3.8 cents/gallon. Prior to the last week’s price report, retail prices had fallen for five weeks in a row, with accumulative price drop of 15.9 cents/gallon. U.S. retail gasoline prices rose by 3.8 cents to average $2.466/gallon during the week ended February 24. Prices rose in all PADDs except for the Rocky Mountains PADD 4. Retail prices for the current week were 7.6 cents per gallon higher than they were one year ago. Until November, gasoline prices had been below their levels of last year. Prices in all PADDs are now higher than they were one year ago.

Gasoline prices hit a peak of $2.903/gallon during the week ended October 8, 2018. Prices then slid downward for fourteen weeks in a row, shedding a total of 66.6 cents per gallon. In the next seventeen weeks, prices marched back up by 66.0 cents/gallon. Prices came very close to the peak they hit in early October. However, the months of May and the June brought an easing of prices amounting to 23.3 cents per gallon. The week ended July 1 reversed that downward trend and sent prices up once again.

For the current week ended February 24, East Coast PADD 1 gasoline retail prices rose by 3.6 cents to reach an average of $2.400/gallon. The average price was 5.1 cents/gallon above where it was during the same week last year. Within PADD 1, New England prices increased by 1.7 cents to average $2.457/gallon. Central Atlantic market prices rose by 3.3 cents, arriving at an average of $2.539/gallon. Prices in the Lower Atlantic market rose by 4.3 cents to average $2.297/gallon.

In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail gasoline prices rose by 4.8 cents to average $2.355/gallon. PADD 2 prices for the current week were 4.9 cents/gallon higher than they were for the same week last year.

In the Gulf Coast PADD 3 market, gasoline prices jumped by 6.8 cents to average $2.151/gallon. This was the largest price increase among the PADDs. PADD 3 continues to have the lowest average prices among the PADDs, currently 31.5 cents/gallon below the average U.S. price. Prices for the week were 3.8 cents higher than for the same week last year.

In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, gasoline pump prices fell by 3.3 cents to settle at an average price of $2.473/gallon. This was the only price decrease among the PADDs. This week’s PADD 4 prices were 24.7 cents higher than at the same time last year.

In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail gasoline prices rose slightly by 0.5 cents to average $3.140/gallon. This was 20.6 cents higher than last year’s price. Prices excluding California rose by 0.5 cents to average $2.886/gallon, which was 25.3 cents/gallon above last year’s price. California prices edged up by 0.2 cents to average $3.360/gallon. California prices rose dramatically in late September and early October, attributed to refinery issues, hitting levels above $4/gallon. Prices then began a sustained retreat, which flattened this week. California prices were 17.6 cents per gallon above their levels from the same week last year. Until November, PADD 5 had been the only PADD where prices were higher than they were one year ago. Currently, average retail gasoline prices in all PADDs are higher than they were last year.