The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly data on diesel and gasoline retail prices for the week ended February 17, 2020. Release of price information was delayed by one day in observance of Presidents’ Day. Gasoline prices finally halted their downward trek, though diesel prices continued to fall. Gasoline prices rose by 0.9 cents/gallon, while diesel prices fell by 2.0 cents/gallon. The national average price for gasoline was $2.428/gallon, which was 11.1 cents/gallon above the price for the same week one year ago. Until November, gasoline prices had been below their levels from last year. Diesel prices had been above last year’s level also, but the recent downward price path has now sent diesel prices back below their levels of last year. On a national average basis, the retail price for diesel averaged $2.890/gallon, which was 11.6 cents/gallon lower than the price in the same week last year.
Retail prices for diesel have now fallen for six consecutive weeks, shedding a total of 18.9 cents/gallon. Gasoline prices broke their five-week downward path, which had brought a total decline of 15.9 cents/gallon, now partly reversed to a 15.0-cents decline during the current week.
Futures Prices and Retail Price Outlook
During the week February 10, 2020 to February 14, 2020, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures prices rose by $1.39/barrel (2.8%.) Gasoline futures prices rose by 6.44 cents/gallon (4.2%.) Diesel futures prices rose by 3.9 cents/gallon (2.4%.) Market optimism was based on reports of potential progress against coronavirus 2019-nCoV, or at a minimum, Chinese government measures to re-start the economy and provide additional economic support. As of Tuesday, February 19, WTI futures prices have recovered to the $52.00/b-$52.75/b range. While the relationship between futures prices and retail prices is not immediate or one-for-one, the current upward trend in futures prices may signal an increase in gasoline and diesel retail prices in the coming week.
Retail Diesel Prices
Retail prices for diesel have now fallen for six consecutive weeks, shedding a total of 18.9 cents/gallon. For the current week ended February 17th, retail diesel prices fell by 2.0 cents to settle at an average price of $2.890/gallon. Retail diesel prices had been below the $3/gallon mark until the attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in mid-September. They remained above the $3/gallon mark until last week’s price report, and they retreated further below $3/b this week. Leading up to 2020, between mid-October 2018 and late-January 2019, retail diesel prices fell for fourteen consecutive weeks. During those fourteen weeks, the price decline totaled 42.9 cents/gallon. From February through April, diesel prices crept back up by 20.4 cents/gallon. The month of May brought a modest reversal in the upward trend in diesel prices. During the five weeks of June including the week ended July 1, diesel prices fell more substantially, declining by 10.9 cents/gallon. For the current week ended February 17, diesel prices fell in all PADDs countrywide. The national average price for the week was 11.6 cents/gallon below where it was during the same week last year.
In the East Coast PADD 1, diesel prices fell by 2.2 cents to settle at an average price of $2.940/gallon. Within PADD 1, New England prices fell by 0.5 cents to average $3.070/gallon. Central Atlantic diesel prices dropped by 2.3 cents to average $3.123/gallon. Lower Atlantic prices fell by 2.3 cents to an average price of $2.793/gallon. PADD 1 prices were 13.3 cents/gallon below their levels for the same week last year.
In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail diesel prices declined by 1.9 cents to average $2.757/gallon. Prices were 14.7 cents below their level for the same week last year. PADD 2 joined PADD 3 during the week ended June 17 in having diesel prices fall below $3/gallon. Prices fell below $3/gallon in PADD 4 and PADD 1. PADD 5 is the only region where diesel prices remain above $3/gallon.
In the Gulf Coast PADD 3, retail diesel prices fell by 1.7 cents to arrive at an average of $2.658/gallon. PADD 3 continues to have the lowest diesel prices among the PADDs, currently 23.2 cents below the U.S. average. Prices were 15.1 cents below their level for the same week in the previous year.
In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, retail diesel prices dropped by 3.7 cents to settle at an average of $2.858/gallon. This was the largest price drop among the PADDs. PADD 4 prices were 2.9 cents lower than for the same week in the prior year.
In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail diesel prices fell by 1.3 cents to average $3.468/gallon. PADD 5 prices were 1.0 cent above their level from last year. Until December 2019, PADD 5 had been the only district where diesel prices were higher than they were in the same week last year. Prices rose until this was true in all other PADDs, but prices have been falling steadily, and the national average price is now below its level of last year. Prices excluding California fell by 1.7 cents to arrive at an average of $3.081/gallon. This price was 2.3 cents below the retail price for the same week last year. California diesel prices fell by 1.0 cent to arrive at an average price of $3.774/gallon. Until the week ended June 24, California had been the only major market where diesel prices were above $4/gallon, where they had been for nine weeks. California prices retreated below $4/gallon from July through October, rose above $4/gallon again during the first three weeks of November, and eased since then. California diesel prices were 3.5 cents higher than they were at the same week last year.
Retail Gasoline Prices
Retail gasoline prices reversed their downward trek, rising by 0.9 cents/gallon after having fallen by a total of 15.9 cents/gallon over the previous five weeks. U.S. retail gasoline prices rose by 0.9 cents to average $2.428/gallon during the week ended February 17. Prices rose only in PADD 2 and fell in all other PADDs, according to the EIA. Retail prices for the current week were 11.1 cents per gallon higher than they were one year ago. Until November, gasoline prices had been below their levels of last year. Prices in all PADDs are now higher than they were one year ago.
Gasoline prices hit a peak of $2.903/gallon during the week ended October 8, 2018. Prices then slid downward for fourteen weeks in a row, shedding a total of 66.6 cents per gallon. In the next seventeen weeks, prices marched back up by 66.0 cents/gallon. Prices came very close to the peak they hit in early October. However, the months of May and the June brought an easing of prices amounting to 23.3 cents per gallon. The week ended July 1 reversed that downward trend and sent prices up once again.
For the current week ended February 17, East Coast PADD 1 gasoline retail prices declined by 0.5 cents to settle at an average of $2.364/gallon. The average price was 9.7 cents/gallon above where it was during the same week last year. Within PADD 1, New England prices decreased by 1.4 cents to average $2.440/gallon. Central Atlantic market prices eased by 0.5 cents, arriving at an average of $2.506/gallon. Prices in the Lower Atlantic market declined by 0.3 cents to average $2.254/gallon.
In the Midwest PADD 2 market, retail gasoline prices rose by 4.7 cents to average $2.307/gallon. This was the only price increase among the PADDs. PADD 2 prices for the current week were 10.0 cents/gallon higher than they were for the same week last year.
In the Gulf Coast PADD 3 market, gasoline prices fell by 0.4 cents to average $2.083/gallon. PADD 3 continues to have the lowest average prices among the PADDs, currently 34.5 cents/gallon below the average U.S. price. Prices for the week were 3.5 cents higher than for the same week last year.
In the Rocky Mountains PADD 4 market, gasoline pump prices fell by 3.4 cents to settle at an average price of $2.473/gallon. This was the largest price decrease among the PADDs. This week’s PADD 4 prices were 29.1 cents higher than at the same time last year.
In the West Coast PADD 5 market, retail gasoline prices fell by 1.0 cent to settle at $3.135/gallon. This was 21.3 cents higher than last year’s price. Prices excluding California fell by 1.2 cents to average $2.883/gallon, which was 24.5 cents/gallon above last year’s price. California prices fell by 0.8 cents to average $3.358/gallon. California prices rose dramatically in late September and early October, attributed to refinery issues, hitting levels above $4/gallon. Prices have been retreating in recent weeks. California prices were 19.7 cents per gallon above their levels from the same week last year. Until November, PADD 5 had been the only PADD where prices were higher than they were one year ago. Currently, average retail gasoline prices in all PADDs are higher than they were last year.
