Energy price volatility, global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, tighter emission norms and the emergence of noise-pollution-free zones are generating a plethora of opportunities for alternate truck powertrains. External influencers such as urbanisation, geopolitics, incentives and technology advancements are all combining to boost the medium-heavy duty (MD-HD) compressed natural gas (CNG) and LNG truck market. By 2025, nearly one in ten MD-HD trucks sold will run on natural gas.
“Compressed ignition engines with high-pressure direct injection (HPDI) technology are gaining traction and are expected to garner wide original equipment manufacturer (OEM) support to reach sizeable scalability by 2025,” said Frost & Sullivan Mobility Industry Analyst Saideep Sudhakar. “The natural gas market is witnessing the first wave of consolidation across integrators and tank manufacturers. Japan, Russia, India and Indonesia are emerging as the next big adopters of natural gas vehicles.”
The global medium-heavy duty CNG and LNG truck market is part of Frost & Sullivan’s Automotive & Transportation Growth Partnership subscription, and finds that China, Europe and North America will account for approximately 83.4% of the global natural gas truck sales in 2025. Asia will benefit from the oversupply of LNG. Other topics covered under the subscription include medium- and heavy-duty natural gas truck product portfolio, engine portfolio, vocation wise natural gas penetration, Ignition Technology and key influencing trends among the next big adopters of natural gas vehicles.
Click here for complimentary access to more information on this analysis and to register for a Growth Strategy Dialogue, a free interactive briefing with Frost & Sullivan’s thought leaders.
Although the market is set to enjoy a double-digit growth rate, the higher cost of acquisition, low oil prices and lack of government subsidies could give commercial fleet owners a pause. In due course, technological advancements and improved scalability will help OEMs lower the initial cost of vehicles and encourage fleet owners to ply natural gas trucks.
“Cummins, FPT and Weichai will be key Tier 1 engine suppliers shaping the future of the natural gas market across developed markets, with an extensive natural gas engine portfolio for a wide variety of duty cycle applications,” noted Sudhakar. “While CNG trucks currently hold a higher percentage of the market share, LNG may dethrone CNG by 2025 due to the greater penetration of long-haul trucks.”
