Transportation energy solutions will come from all directions.
By John Eichberger
In looking at how to address transportation-related issues, too often the focus goes to a single energy source solution, looking for that one breakthrough that will solve all our emissions issues. The reality is this may not exist; instead, we should be looking at a combination of incremental improvements that are compatible with each other.
In other words, let’s look beyond just EVs, because there are plenty of successes with traditional fuels.
Since 2004, the United States light-duty vehicle fleet has increased its fuel efficiency 45% and reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 34%. This was achieved by a combination of improved vehicle engineering and performance and the introduction of lower-carbon fuel.
It will take time for the fleet to turn over to the next generation of increased efficiency vehicles, whether traditional fuels or EVs. But there are opportunities right now to encourage fuel innovation (including liquid, electric and gaseous forms) that can continue to reduce the emissions of the vehicles that are currently on the road.
A Life-Cycle Approach
Greenhouse gas emissions are produced at every step of a vehicle’s life cycle, from production to eventually disposal and recycling. Nearly three-quarters of life-cycle GHG emissions come from the energy used to power vehicles—whether internal combustion engine vehicles or battery electric vehicles. Some improvements can be made in new-to-market vehicles, but for the nearly 300 million vehicles registered in the United States and 1.5 billion in the world, addressing the carbon emissions potential of the energy is the only way to reduce emissions.
As we look at the current fleet, it is most helpful to focus on legacy ICE vehicles, considering EVs currently represent less than 2% of the fleet. So how do we do reduce the emissions potential of the existing liquid fuel supply? There are innovative projects and products that can be brought to the market over time, such as e-fuels, renewable gasoline and advanced production practices, and we should continue to work on these and bring them to market because they hold great potential.
TEI examined life-cycle emissions by looking at the life cycle of a vehicle—from manufacturer to use to eventual disposal/recycling. A life cycle approach means that we value the reduction of carbon emissions wherever they exist—the oil and corn fields, lithium mines, refineries, electricity generation facilities—as well as at the tailpipe. By doing so, we can compound environmental benefits.
Imagine a crude oil that is extracted using renewable energy and methane sequestration rather than flaring and then processed into gasoline at a refinery that also uses renewable energy and sequestration. Then, blend this lower carbon product with 15% by volume ethanol that was produced from corn grown using sustainable agricultural practices in a biorefinery that also uses renewable energy and sequestration. Then, perhaps, we could also add up to 5% renewable gasoline and some e-fuel, both of which are not yet scalable to mass volumetric production and may only be available in small volumes. If these options can effectively be combined to yield the finished gasoline product, how much carbon might we be able to remove from the transportation sector?
The Impact of Biofuels
Biofuels have enabled lower emissions and enhances domestic energy security over the past three decades, and their growing embrace presents more opportunities.
Since 2011, we have increased our monthly consumption of biofuels in the United States by 65%. This was, of course, supported by the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), as well as the Blenders’ Tax Credit, programs that resulted in a significant increase in renewable fuel use and reduction in carbon emissions. Today, ethanol comprises about 10.5% of the gasoline pool and biodiesel and renewable diesel comprise around 10% of the diesel pool. The expansion of this market has been incredible, and it has had a positive impact on emissions.
Using TEI’s Carbon Avoidance Tracker tool, which applies the carbon reduction variables published by Argonne National Laboratory in its GREET model, we can see how effective biofuels have been in reducing GHG emissions from transportation. On a monthly basis, the use of ethanol, biodiesel and renewable diesel takes an average of about 5% of carbon out of the system. Over the past three years these products have mitigated more than 455 million metric tons of CO2 emissions. According to a calculator provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), reducing 115 million metric tons of CO2 per year is equal to taking nearly 35 million vehicles off the road—or operating 44,800 wind turbines for a year (The United States currently operates approximately 75,000 turbines).
Despite the progress made with leveraging biofuels to expand the fuel supply and reduce emissions, there is more we can do. TEI’s 2024 report, Balancing the Benefits of Biofuels, demonstrated that we can use more biofuels and develop new sources of feedstock while not disrupting the supply or affordability of food as some have contested. It is possible to pursue environmental progress while protecting our economic interests–these need not be mutually exclusive objectives.
The bottom line is that we need to work together to identify solutions to our environmental challenges that preserve access to affordable and reliable transportation energy for consumers, that support the specific-use cases for which certain vehicles are deployed and provide economic opportunities for businesses that will encourage investments in such solutions.
TEI will continue to evaluate all viable options to provide the market with some insight into what might be possible and feasible. By elevating the conversation, we can help decision makers reach for solutions that improve the transportation market for all stakeholders.
John Eichberger is the TEI executive director.
