West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices are back above $48 per barrel (/b) this morning after a rally on Friday added $1.58 to WTI values. Prices opened Friday at $46.93/b and rose to a close of $48.51/b. Prices seesawed last week, opening higher on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, and opening lower on Tuesday and Thursday. The overall trend was a week 28 cents in the red.

Today will bring the first total solar eclipse visible in the continental U.S. since 1979, 38 years ago. Thousands of people will be viewing the eclipse, and thousands have traveled to stay somewhere along the path of the totality, sometimes camping out for days to achieve the best view away from urban lights. There will be a reduction in solar energy that will test the resilience of the country’s electric power grid. On the other hand, many people are essentially on holiday for the event, which may reduce demand temporarily.

A more curious development is that some people are discussing an idea known as the “Puetz Crash Window.” The researcher, Steve Puetz, has found that market reversals often begin around the time of a lunar eclipse and end near a solar eclipse. Can it be that, in a time of volatile markets, an eclipse is at least a predictable event, and as likely as anything to move prices? Many of the discussions are humorous, but there is little doubt that traders are considering eclipse effects, and this by itself can nudge markets in one way or another.

Descending back to earth from the solar system, several earthly events are supporting oil prices:

  • Last week brought a 8.945-millon-barrel (MMbbl) drawdown in crude inventories.
  • Markets for physical barrels are showing unusual strength, although the traditional seasonal peak of demand is ending.
  • Libya declared force majeure on supplies from its oft-disrupted Sharara oilfield.
  • Baker Hughes released its weekly data on active oil and gas rigs, reporting that the active oil rig count dropped from 768 to 763 during the week ended August 18.

WTI crude opened at $48.72/b this session, up by a hefty $1.79 from Friday’s opening. Some of the gains from Friday’s rally now are fading. Currently this morning, WTI prices are $48.36/b, down by 36 cents since today’s opening.