Market Report & Analysis for 1/18/18 Afternoon Edition
Afternoon Market Overview
This week the EIA & API inventory data will be delayed by one day due to the holiday on Monday in the US. The API report will be issued late Wednesday afternoon with the EIA inventory report scheduled for release on Thursday at 11:00 AM.
Crude oil stocks likely decreased even as refiner demand for crude oil decreased while refined product inventories are projected to be mixed in this week’s report. We are expecting another strong draw in US oil inventories, a small draw in distillate fuel stocks due to the cold last week and a build in gasoline inventories. We are expecting total combined crude and refined product inventories to show a draw in this week’s report. Expect crude oil stocks to decrease by about 3.4 million barrels.
If the actual numbers are in sync with our projection the year over year comparison for crude oil will now show a deficit of 69.4 million barrels while the overhang versus the five-year average for the same week will come in around 27.7 million barrels. Canadian imports into the US for the week ending Jan 5 decreased by 147,000 bpd to 3.377mn bpd and are now 258,000 bpd below the previous all-time record- high reached early in 2017, per the U.S. Energy Information Agency.
With refinery runs expected to decrease (by around 0.8 percent) we are still expecting a build in gasoline stocks. Gasoline stocks are expected to increase by 2.9 million barrels which would result in the gasoline year over year deficit coming in around 6.27 million barrels while the surplus versus the five-year average for the same week will come in around 1.1 million barrels.
Distillate inventories are projected to decrease by 0.8 million barrels on the week. If the actual EIA data is in sync with our distillate fuel projection inventories versus last year will likely now be about 26.8 million barrels below last year while the surplus versus the five-year average will come in around 1.2 million barrels.